Between fall 2019 and fall 2023, public school enrollment fell from 50.8 million to 49.5 million, a loss of more than 1.2 million students, or 2.5%. The pandemic accelerated that decline, but enrollment was already falling in some grades and communities before COVID, and that trend is expected to continue: The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects overall enrollment will fall below 47 million by 2031.

Yet a FutureEd analysis based on data from NCES, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and other sources, finds that enrollment trends vary widely by race, grade level, geography and schools. That variation offers important insight into how the education landscape is shifting, where the challenges are most acute and what it means for the future of the public school system.

When COVID struck and public schools switched to virtual learning, some families began educating their children at home; others opted for private schools, many of which resumed in-person learning sooner than public schools.

Though many families eventually returned, by fall 2022, an estimated 3.4% of American children were homeschooled, compared with 2.8% in fall 2019 — and advocates say the number continues to rise. Private school enrollment also grew, reaching roughly 7 million in 2021, an estimated 22% increase over pre-pandemic levels. Newly expanded school choice policies are likely to accelerate that shift: Sixteen states offer or intend to offer public funding for private school tuition to any student in the state. While these programs haven’t yet triggered a mass public school exodus, they are likely to reshape some family preferences and expand the supply of private alternatives.

Still, family choices aren’t the sole or even primary driver of the decline. The U.S. birthrate has fallen steadily for more than a decade and is now —at just under 1.6 — the lowest in history. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of children under 5 fell by 1.8 million nationwide, from 20.2 million to 18.4 million. That shrinking pipeline is now reaching classrooms.